A coordinated front is forming in North America as Canada and Mexico unite to counter the latest threat to the continent’s core trade agreement. In a high-stakes shift, Ottawa is exposing the diminished leverage behind President Donald Trump’s renewed pledge to blow up the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
Senior U.S. trade officials signaled in Washington that President Trump may let the pact expire in 2026 or even withdraw unilaterally. The White House is reportedly evaluating a year-to-year replacement or splitting the deal into separate agreements with each neighbor.
Trump repeated his familiar assertion that the U.S. would “either let it expire or work out another deal.” The response from Ottawa was a study in calm. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government simply reiterated it would protect Canadian interests “calmly and methodically.”
This refusal to flinch marks a dramatic change from the last major renegotiation. Analysts note Canada is no longer the more dependent, less confident partner of 2017. The world of 2025 finds the U.S. economy wrestling with inflation and internal backlash against tariffs.
Major retailers like Costco are challenging Trump’s tariff authority in court. Agricultural exporters warn of retaliatory pain, and Republican governors privately signal discomfort with another prolonged trade war. Trump’s threats no longer land with the same force.
The real power play emerged as Mexico called for an early CUSMA review to restore investment confidence. Ottawa and Mexico City now share a critical assessment: any renegotiation must be trilateral. A fragmented North America only serves Washington’s interests.
This united front blocks Trump’s core negotiating tactic of isolating counterparties. It forces Washington to confront a reality it often ignores—power on the continent is more balanced than it appears. A coordinated Canada-Mexico stance restrains America’s ability to dictate terms.
Underpinning this new confidence is a quiet economic recalibration. Investors are noticing Washington’s uncertainty, and capital is slowly drifting north. Supply chains are adjusting, valuing predictability over political volatility.
Canada’s modern industrial strategy, from clean energy to critical minerals, now attracts global partners who seek stability. The country is building export pathways that soften dependence on any single market, including the United States.
Perhaps the most underestimated factor is American public opinion. Recent U.S. polling shows strong bipartisan support for preserving CUSMA, citing stable prices, protected manufacturing, and secure supply chains. Corporate America has grown vocal in its warnings.
Manufacturers cite rising production costs, farmers fear lost exports, and retailers protest ongoing instability. At a moment of elevated consumer prices, another manufactured trade crisis is politically toxic. Trump’s threat now risks punishing the very voters he needs.
The economic pressure flows both ways. New data reveals an unprecedented collapse in Canadian travel to the United States, a direct reaction to Trump’s rhetoric and tariffs. Border crossings fell by over 30%, delivering a multi-billion-dollar blow to U.S. border economies.
This shift is more than economic; it is a statement of national pride. Canadians are demonstrating that influence is reciprocal. For Prime Minister Carney, this public sentiment is a political tailwind, reinforcing his message of resilience and reduced reliance.
The strategic landscape was further defined this week on the global stage. At the APEC summit, South Korea masterfully managed Trump with symbolic flattery, securing its interests without surrendering cash. Meanwhile, Carney outlined a plan in Malaysia to double Canada’s non-U.S. exports.
These parallel approaches—patience, diversification, and strategic unity—are becoming the tools of modern diplomacy. Allies have learned to navigate American unpredictability rather than follow it.
As Prime Minister Carney returns to Washington for a critical Oval Office meeting, the dynamic has fundamentally altered. He does not arrive as a supplicant, but as a steady partner from a nation that has weathered the storm.
The confrontation meant to weaken Canada has only strengthened its resolve. The choice facing North America is becoming clear: a future shaped by volatility, or one anchored by stability and shared prosperity.
